Funded PhD Research

Justin Berg

Creative Forecasting: Improving the Selection and Rejection of Novel Ideas in Organizations

Management Department; Faculty Adviser: Adam Grant

To avoid selecting bad ideas for novel products or rejecting good ideas, decision makers must accurately forecast how audiences will perceive novel ideas. This study uses short videos of about 400 circus performances, which will be assessed by the performers and a sample of industry evaluators (executives, talent agents, etc.). A comparison of these assessments to the reception of the videos by a large global audience sample will determine forecasting accuracy and help explore ways to improve forecasting. In addition to these findings, retailers can gain insight from the research about the kinds of videos that go viral, thus informing their social media and peer-to-peer sharing strategies.

Publications, Presentations & Awards


Berg, Justin (2016), “Balancing on the Creative Highwire: Forecasting the Success of Novel Ideas in Organizations,” Administrative Science Quarterly, 61(3), pp. 433-468.